Archive for the ‘mobile’ Category

iPhone Tech Talk – Los Angeles

Monday, November 10th, 2008

(I’ve been rather caught up lately, and this is a slightly late post!)

Update 11/11/08: Correction, when I wrote below that a certain Apple product did not have a camera, I was referring to the iPod Touch, not the iPhone 2G! Tks CaArRrRny.

About 2.5 weeks ago, I took a day off from work and drove 2 hours up to LA to attend a mini iPhone developer conference. It was a free event, but seating was limited and reservation was a must. I was lucky to get a spot, a few of my developer buddies from the San Diego area were not able to secure one (the event “sold out” almost immediately!)

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Apple also announced that they have just launched a developer forum site just the night before. This forum is late in the game, also because it was only recently that Apple decided to lift the developer-community-killing NON DISCLOSURE (duh) agreement.

I got to meet some interesting dev guys, and learned a bit more about this new mobile platform (below are some pictures). Some of my thoughts:

The iPhone App Store really does provide value

As much as some folks criticise this “centralized” distribution method, it provides value like Digg.com, Reddit.com, and Slashdot.org does – in discovery. Does Digg create its own content? No. Digg’s largest value prop: The most interesting news at that point in time on the ‘net, when you visit the site (great for ADD news addicts). It’s a great discovery service. So if you’re an iPhone app developer, the App Store is a great way for people to discover your app. You are exposed to an audience world-wide. Or at least, the 50-60 some countries that iPhone is officially distributed in.

To contrast, in absence of the App Store, you can distribute your app on your own personal web site. Uhh, and how are you going to get discovered? Are you going to spend $ on a marketing SEO force? Look at Windows Mobile and Symbian. If you developed an app on these said platforms, you are free to give/sell it exclusively from on your own web site. There’s not an equivalent “App Store” for Windows Mobile and Symbian OS. (And how are apps doing on those platform again? Right..)

Apple’s seemingly arbitrary process of approving apps sucks

Yeah it sucks. Apple provided lunch at the Grand Wilshire hotel, so we didn’t have to go out and spend money. Nice move, because developers can discuss and get to know each other over a meal (aligned with AAPL’s motive of cultivating a developer community – and oh, I like free food too). One thing that appears to be the consensus is Apple’s no-guidance on what apps they will approve or not approve to be on the App Store.

For an app developer, after you have done building your app, you then have to wait for Apple’s final thumbs up/down on whether your app will be accepted for distribution. While some checks and balances are necessary for various reasons (quality assurance, no malware apps, etc.) – this current process is one big black box and the trouble is that if you were a real corporation who had to justify engineering resources to allocate, complete with revenue projection plans, you have this one step where it looks like it’s a dealbreaker: the review process.

The trouble is, you don’t know before hand if Apple would say “hell no” to distributing your app after you have already spent the time/money/effort toiling away learning the platform, and then painstakingly building an app. Your resources spent would be effectively be written off as a sunk lost, if they just rejected the app. This is arbitrary outcome is hard to accept, if you’re the I-allocate-my-engineering-resources-wisely-with-planning kind. If you’re a {one, two, three}-man “side project” startup guy app developer, then whatever .. because you’ll just likely chalk it up to fun. But if you’re doing this solely to put food on the table, this process sucks.

One developer over lunch mentioned how his app was submitted, and Apple did not deliver a decision within the time they said they would (IIRC, 90 days), and told him to resubmit (essentially beginning the whole submission process from beginning again). He did call once in a while to check the status, and he said the operator’s sole job was to basically just remind callers that the 90 days have not been reached, and they should just wait by the mailbox for an answer.

Fragmentation is veeeery minimal in the iPhone

Minimal, yes, not zero. Why? Because the older iPhone iPod Touch does not have a camera. So if you’re developing an app using a camera, you had to include in your code an “if no camera, do this, else do that” statement. Think about the Android. It’s made to run on a bazillion type of different hardware from different manufacturers. If you were developing an app using the a camera, you have to do a “if no camera, break, if else, camera supports X resolution, do this, else if, camera has this special feature, do this, else … ” nesting an unnecessarily long if/else conditional (or a conditional equivalent type check).

The art of symbiotic co-creation

Back “in the day”, one has to negotiate with carriers and stuff (no one man dev shop is going to do that) – clearly the barrier-to-entry has been lowered significantly for mobile app developers. Also, Apple takes care of billing, local taxation stuff (recall that the iPhone is distributed globally in 50-60 some countries), and the hosting of your app. I think the 30% cut is reasonable, as they are creating real value for mobile developers.

It’s really nice how Apple has removed a lot of friction in developing a mobile app. The success of the iPhone hinges just as much on the app developers as do the success of the mobile developers, on the success of the iPhone. The more attractive applications exist out there, the more that would drive iPhone sales globally, further strengthening the buyer-seller network-effect (like eBay, they are un-toppable at this point). As an app developer, you’d want to develop for the platform with the widest audience possible.

Anyone can engineer an app for any niche they choose, so even obscure verticals may have their needs met. Apple knows there’s no way it can possibly meet *everyones* app tastes, so it’s smart to just farm out that piece to the free capitalistic market.

On the flip side, not providing an open market for developers would mean not being able to feasibly meet a certain need by a certain category of consumers (some will be left out, by definition!), and those folks would be ripe for poaching by iPhone-competitors. Thus, AAPL is really covering themselves from a potential attack from the low-end of the market there (which if were to occur, would force Apple to keep moving higher in the market – classic b-school case study stuff). This reminds me of an article on innovation by McKinsey Quarterly that I had just previous blogged about (good read about innovation, do check it out. Warning: soul-sucking registration required).

In all, this was a nice event to get to know other iPhone devs around the Socal area (one guy actually flew in from Phoenix!). I learned a lot of best practices type stuff, e.g. excessive and unnecessary polling of the GPS quickly drains the battery life, and most apps don’t need that kind of geo-location precision (so don’t be a hog!)

Hooking up an iPhone to a Macbook for real-time live debugging:

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Real-time performance benchmark stats:

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Hey, does that spell an “A” for .. Aquaduct?

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Hello World Cocoa Touch, and …

Wednesday, October 1st, 2008

Hello World Mobile (and Apps)! Ready or not .. here I come :)

Hello Cocoa Touch and .. hello,

That’s a hello world on an iPhone simulator. The photo itself is taken on a, you guessed it – an iPhone ;)

Mobile data adoption on the rise

Saturday, July 26th, 2008

Some mobile data trends (numbers + commentary):

  • Total mobile data revenues for 2007: US$157 Bil
  • Total mobile data revenues for Q1 2008: >US$49 Bil, 42.7% y-o-y increase. Of this, non-SMS data made up approx US$17.46 Bil (35.6% of total data revenues)
  • Mobile data revenues is now almost 20% of mobile operator total revenues
  • 40% of world’s data revenues come from APAC (>US$20 Bil in Q1 2008)
  • Fastest growing is EMEA, which despite only representing 2% of world’s data revenues, is growing at 91.7% y-o-y to US$927 Mil. This acceleration is aided by the 321% y-o-y increase of HSPA subscribers
  • Operator that generated highest non-voice revenues this quarter is Japan’s NTT DoCoMo (US$3.6 Bil), overtaking China Mobile (US$3.5 Bil)
  • As a % of overall revenue, Filipino mobile operator Smart Communication is the world’s market leader, and the only carrier to depend on non-voice revenues for > 50% of its income *I wonder how much of this is attributed to microfinance and mobile payments i n that region, hmm ..

And as always, I’d like to extrapolate some meaning from raw numbers, so let’s go.

Obviously, the trend clearly indicates that your cell phone is becoming more of a general purpose computing device (like your desktop PC, as opposed to a single-purpose device that makes phone calls only), with more rich features that PCs don’t have (e.g. GPS and accelerometer), and it’s all hooked up to the wonderful internet.

Action items: First, we have to get out of the habit of thinking of cell phones as desktops, because the use-cases are completely different; treating them as such is the clearest way to die. Second, with mobile devices becoming more powerful (computationally, Moore’s law), having more storage (cost of storage trending down, Moore’s law), internet connectivity improving (coverage, speed, cost, again, Moore’s law), and throw on top of that added new hardware features (GPS, accelerometer, etc) .. this sounds to me like having richer and more powerful tools in a technologist’s problem solving warchest — so bring on the problems, bring on the opportunity.

I chuckle as I write this because this reminds me of what Stanford University’s president John Hennessy once mentioned in an interview, about his prediction of what would happen in mobile technology down the road:

  1. Information at any where, at any time, on any device
  2. A user experience that works well, independent of what that information is: Be it a Google map, stock listing, web site, email, etc. Making that convenient and natural, and seamless
  3. Imagine walking in a brick and mortar store and wanting to buy a product. I want to look up my phone and do a price comparison on the product and know what people are saying about it. I want to do that in 5 seconds. Today, I have to open a browser, visit a review site, search, etc. (too much work)

The iPhone is clearly one of the pioneers in making that happen, especially with the iPhone app store. I have previously commented on why I think the iPhone app store is very much Apple’s competitive advantage, and as much as I root for Google’s Android, it remains to be seen how the Android incarnations would address the iPhone platform threat.

With mobile carriers having trouble increasing revenues from voice, you betcha they are thinking of every single way to make money from mobile data. I have also previously written a rant about iPhone/AT&T’s data pricing strategy (there’s nothing wrong with the strategy per se, I’m just a price-sensitive geek at heart).

Now’s a good time to be a mobile app developer .. there’s money already being pledged for the BlackBerry platform (US$150 Mil) , Google Android platform (US$10 Mil), and the iPhone platform (US$100 Mil). I can see mobile carriers snapping up these mobile app startups to further bolster their mobile data revenues. Technology IPOs are almost non-existent today, much to a Silicon Valley VC’s annoyance, so exits via acquisition to a mobile operator would make sense for mobile app startups.

I’m passionate about innovation and problem solving with tech, and I can’t wait to see more new applications in mobile given these trends. The question I try to ask myself given these stats above are, “what else is possible today that wasn’t yesterday?” Think it about it.

If I were to wish for anything, I should not wish for wealth and power, but for the passionate sense of the potential, for the eye which, ever young and ardent, sees the possible. Pleasure disappoints, possibility never. And what wine is so sparkling, what so fragrant, what so intoxicating, as possibility!
–Søren Kierkegaard

To go off on a slight tangent, it’s interesting to note that a Filipino mobile operator is the world’s market leader in depending on non-voice revenues. I wonder how much mobile payments contribute to their revenue stream, and how much of that is related to microfinance. If anything, I think that could be a classic BoP example because it would illustrate another example to bust the myth that corporations cannot make a significant and sustainable profit in selling to the poor.

If I was all the other mobile carriers looking to make more $ from mobile data, I’d be watching this Filipino carrier, Smart Communications closely to glean some lessons.

Click here for the full story of the stats above from cellular-news, and regional breakdown of revenues.

And I’ll end this blog post with vivid taste of possibilities for mobile — a very cool Android project in the making called Enkin. Do check it out!

iPhone 3G MS Exchange sync pricing strategy

Sunday, July 13th, 2008

Unless someone knocked you out in a hockey fight last Friday and your consciousness has just returned, chances are that you have heard of this thing called the iPhone 3G launch. I’ve been going back and forth on my decision on whether to get it or not. There are 2 things that are holding me back from getting an iPhone 3G:

  1. MS Exchange synchronization pricing
  2. No tethering option

It’s a classic pricing strategy–their (AT&T’s) attempt to extract more value from the wireless consumer segment that well .. has more money to dispose. Not only have they hiked the price of the unlimited data plan by $10/month from $20 to $30, but they charge you an additional $15/mo if you want to synchronize with an Exchange Server.

I’m a price-sensitive customer *and* I’m a techie at heart, thus I simply balk at having to guarantee AT&T’s revenue for 2 whopping years merely to transfer a sequence of low and high electrical signals to some proprietary email server, as opposed to any other email server, or as opposed to just casually serving the web.

The techie in me knows that they’re simply charging more by discriminating against MS Exchange data from casual web surfing, or any non-Exchange email data.

From Wikipedia’s entry on Net Neutrality: Neutrality proponents also claim that telecom companies seek to impose the tiered service model more for the purpose of profiting from their control of the pipeline rather than for any demand for their content or services.

The entrepreneur in me knows that they are just playing it by the pricing strategy books. To that end, I say, all the more power to them. Maybe I won’t buy the phone, but seeing that they are so savvy and nickel and diming the segment I am in (the “tough” crowd), I’m considering buying their stock instead.

My second gripe is the inability to tether the iPhone 3G to a laptop (without hacking it). This point is important to me because when I travel with my laptop, and if I’m in a spot where I don’t have wifi access, I just need that option to tether my laptop to my mobile phone.

Maybe AT&T is worried about people starting to use the iPhone as a modem and thus cannibalizing revenues from their existing wifi hotspot sales. To that end, I feel like if I’m already putting up with the hike in price for monthly unlimited data, putting up with the extra monthly charge for their discriminating against MS Exchange data, it’s just simply un-polite to ding me again by forcing me to cough up even more for a separate wifi hotspot plan. Come on.

And I quote Bruce Scheier:

Anyone with wireless capability who can see my network can use it to access the internet. To me, it’s basic politeness. Providing internet access to guests is kind of like providing heat and electricity, or a hot cup of tea.

I can see how they might have justified this impoliteness though. Corporate users probably have their companies paying for the bills anyway, and corporations have much deeper pockets and can easily justify such a cost as a business expensive. However, this pricing model obviously neglects the average work-for-a-corporation-joe-but-this-is-an-out-of-pocket-expense.

All said, here’s a message from a randomly-selected passionate early-adopting techie from the price-sensitive “tough crowd” segment, to whoever green-lighted this pricing strategy. You guys suck, and I hope you enjoy this video.


How to Get Broke by Buying an iPhone

Web 2.0 weekend roundup: Mashup (projected) money, Slide, plus mobile

Sunday, June 8th, 2008

Forrester reports that mashups are taking off. A trend/wave to take note of. This reminds me of what Greg McAdoo (VC with Sequoia) said, that the tiny companies have no power to change waves (technology trends), only the option of riding the wave. So here’s the wave, for those who want to ride it!

Mashups — custom applications that combine multiple, disparate data sources into something new and unique — are coming to the enterprise. Forrester projects that the enterprise mashup market will reach nearly $700 million by 2013; while this means that there is plenty of money to be made selling mashup platforms, it will affect nearly every software vendor. Mashup platforms are in the pole position and ready to grab the lion’s share of the market — and an entire ecosystem of mashup technology and data providers is emerging to complement those platforms. Those vendor strategists that move quickly, plan a mashup strategy, and build a partner ecosystem will come out on top.

The full report costs $775 ( ouch! psst .. can someone share? :) )

I got that link from Dion Hincliffe’s report on the mashup industry. An interesting read, do check it out — I do no justice in summarizing it here. It’ll get you a quick overview of the state of the mash-o-sphere (did I just invent yet-another-useless new Web 2.0 buzzword?) Plus, it features cool San Diego tech startup by two cool people I know; shoutouts to my friends Steve and Aaron from MindTouch!

On another note, Slide reports that they are doubling down their efforts on their current top widget properties to make them even better, .. implying that they are going to slow down on churning out new and potential “disruptive” widgets. I’m all about focusing on your core business for sure, but I hope they still carve out some time (as a percentage) throw stuff against the wall to see what sticks, since there’s no time better to encourage innovation than during hard times. Maybe this is all just an investor-relations fluff .. in which case, fine.

Max Levchin is no stranger to innovation, and I am sure he knows what he is doing. He is definitely someone I admire, and I’ve covered him previously on my blog here before.

Someone I spoke to this weekend was blindingly oblivious to the revenue opportunities in value-added services for mobile, so I thought including this pretty picture from this very worthy blog post from Alec Saunders here was in order.

Silly wabbit, of course you can make money writing apps for mobile :) — just google for {iPhone, Android, Blackberry} fund.

mobile value added services: long tail