The McKinsey Quarterly has an interesting piece titled “Hidden Flaws in Strategy”, authored by Charles Roxburgh. What I like about this article is that it forces one to think about your blind spot, and provide solutions on how to overcome your own bias. A blind spot is well, very self-explanatory, which is why I think that’s just all the more reason why people, especially those who do any kind of strategy, should read this well put together article.

I’ll sum up some of the key takeaways to me, but reading the original piece of McKinsey is highly recommended.

Here are the common strategy flaws.

Flaw 1: Overconfidence

Our brains are naturally wired to make us overconfidence. This can be a good thing, because otherwise no one in their right mind would want to launch a new startup. However, we hurt ourselves when we try to make accurate estimates. Given a test question like “How heavy is a fully laden 747?” where participants are asked to give an answer where they were 90% confident, most people would rather be precisely wrong than be vaguely right.

Lesson learned: Be skeptical of strategies premised on certainty, and (duh) give yourself some wiggle room.

Flaw 2: Mental Accounting

Richard Thaler, a theorist in behavioural finance named the concept of mental accounting, defined as “the inclination to categorize and treat money differently depending on where it comes from, where it is kept, and how it is spent.” Some examples of mental accounting in the boardroom:

  • imposing caps on core business while throwing money at a startup
  • writing off money spent with conveniently created categories such as “revenue-investment spend” or “strategic investment”

Lesson learned: Don’t be so quick to throw away “so what if we throw it away” money. Eval potential investment through the standard scrutiny process, regardless of how the money fell into your lap.

Flaw 3: Status quo bias

An experiment conducted by Samuelson and Zeckhauser discovered that when students were asked how they would invest a hypothetical inheritance of millions of dollars, they adopted a “let’s leave things where they are” approach. That is, if the inheritance was already in high-risk high-yield stocks, it would be left as is. If the inheritence was already in low-risk low-return bonds, it would also be left as is. They opted not to rebalance the allocation in this hypothetical portfolio, even if it wasn’t in accordance to their risk preference.

The explanation is that people are more concerned about the fear of loss more than they are excited by the prospect of getting more. That’s the status quo. That’s what makes entrepreneurs special–they are not the status quo.

The other explanation is the endowment bias. Thaler discovered in an experiment with Cornell students that they wouldn’t pay more than $2.75 for mug with a Cornell imprint, but if they were given one, they wouldn’t sell the same mug away for less than $5.25–did the free market suddenly decide that the same mug has more value when it was already in someone’s possession when the same mug (a brand new one available for purchase) would be worth less? I think not.

While conservatism can be a strategic asset, it is important to distinguish between a status-quo option that is genuinely the right thing to do vs. one that just “feels safe” because of our innate bias.
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I’m backlogged on my reading and I have just gotten around to reading this interesting (but lengthy) piece from Wired about some cool psychology hacks. I’m going to distill the key points for easier (read: less time consuming) mass consumption here. This is a very interesting memory trick. Simply put, I’m sure everyone could use a better memory.

Piotr Wozniak found a trick of how to remember stuff, and his software SuperMemo is a tool to help accomplish just that.

The problem statement and the general theory behind the solution:

SuperMemo is based on the insight that there is an ideal moment to practice what you’ve learned. Practice too soon and you waste your time. Practice too late and you’ve forgotten the material and have to relearn it. The right time to practice is just at the moment you’re about to forget. Unfortunately, this moment is different for every person and each bit of information. Imagine a pile of thousands of flash cards. Somewhere in this pile are the ones you should be practicing right now. Which are they?

The benefits:

Twenty years ago, Wozniak realized that computers could easily calculate the moment of forgetting if he could discover the right algorithm. SuperMemo is the result of his research. It predicts the future state of a person’s memory and schedules information reviews at the optimal time. The effect is striking. Users can seal huge quantities of vocabulary into their brains.

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I’m definitely a fan of Paulo Coelho, the renowned Brazillian author. He has a unique way of teaching the lessons in life that he has learned through storytelling.

A few lessons from the Warrior of the Light.

Using one’s own madness

A warrior of the light studies very carefully the position he wishes to conquer.

However difficult his objective may be, there is always a way to overcome the obstacles. He verifies the alternative routes, sharpens his sword, and seeks to fill his heart with the perseverance necessary to face the challenge.

But, as he advances, the warrior realizes there are difficulties he had not foreseen at the outset.

If he waits for the ideal moment, he will never move from his position; he sees that a little madness is needed for the next step.

The warrior uses a little madness. Because - in war and in love - one cannot foresee everything.

Life is such that if you wait to gather 100% of every single detail before you can make a decision, others would have surpassed you. If you waited for the fog to clear, then what you see is what everyone else will also see. Given the perfect picture, anyone sane would make the same correct, best choice. This is exactly how *not* to beat the market.

CEOs often make decisions with incomplete data–and that takes a little madness. It’s about making decisions with the best information possible available at that time. Standing still through inaction is waiting to fail–and I’ll fail from action than inaction.

So when do you put yourself out there and wear your heart on your sleeve?
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Question: Describe your job in one sentence.
Answer: The art of prospering between a rock and a hard place.

That reminds me of a quote:

There are really only two ways to approach life - as victim or as gallant fighter - and you must decide if you want to act or react, deal your own cards or play with a stacked deck. And if you don’t decide which way to play with life, it always plays with you.
– Merle Shain

Which reminds of awesome book I read titled “The Pathfinder” by Nicholas Lore–which I highly recommend. (Thanks for the recommendation, Becks!)

You can at any moment, take flight on new wings into an unprecedented life making a choice for vitality, for living fully, for LIFE spelled in capital letters. It is, however, an expensive journey. You pay by giving up the familiar, comfortable, everyday ways of living and thinking that are the wages and rewards of going with the flow of your programming.

The willingness to feel fear and keep going forward distinguishes the living from the merely breathing. In fact, it is not just the so-called negative emotions that are uncomfortable. When you choose to live fully, your palate of experiences, thoughts, emotions, and possibilities expands. This leads you onto new ground in other areas of your life as well. And, folks, all that newness swirling around just ain’t comfortable.

The question is not whether to take risks, but which ones to take. The peril of being reasonable is that you will miss all the fun. It’s not enough to cautiously edge your way towards the cliff. Learn to revel in taking risks for the sake of your soul. Every choice you make gives birth instantly to certain risks as surely as your shadow follows you.

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It’s just after noon on Sunday. I woke up early today (I’ve began for the past few weeks now to not sleep in on weekends) because I have a lot of things to do. Some of the things I have to do, I don’t feel like doing, but I know I have to do. However, I catch myself slacking of a bit, not fully focusing on the task that requires my to concentrate deeply (like writing this blog now!) Gahh!!! And I know this is a self-defeating behavior. Which is why I am putting this up here.

This is my blog, and when I first began writing, I wrote that among other things, I wanted this to be a place for me to collect my thoughts and help me think. Sometimes something as simple writing things down help me focus and collect my thoughts, viewing things from a different perspective better.

Writing forces me to concentrate on what I am thinking about, in one consecutive single-user thought process (no round-robin time quantas need to be assigned). The positive byproduct of this is that I focus more on the topic I am thinking about, and during the writing process, I may discover something flawed about what I had originally intended to write and correct my course before proceeding. Likewise, I may also discover something that I did not originally think about (perhaps an important subtopic to expand upon).

I’ve spent all morning, and haven’t been as productive as I have wanted to. I’m moving, but I’m just not moving frickin fast enough. I realize that distraction, my self-induced ADD, my inability to focus, my tendency for procrastination (because I don’t want to do this!), is a major impediment to my success in everything I do, and will be in anything I do, if I don’t manage this. I am battling this vice of mine, and I know I will win.

I am reminded of what Dave Lorenzo, a business coach, wrote:

We have all heard the expression, “It don’t come easy” in reference to success. This is the truth. Although success may appear to happen in an effortless fashion, someone somewhere worked very diligently behind the scenes to ensure optimal results. You must prepare your mind for the difficult tasks that lay ahead of you as you drive your way toward success. Just as a world-class athlete spends years training his body to take the punishment of intense competition, you must train your mind for the battles you will face on the road to making your goals a reality. Your mental training regime involves challenging yourself with completing increasingly difficult tasks that require you to be alone.

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Randy Komisar, when asked in an interview about how he would ever make his mark at VC firm like Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers when they have a track record of investment home runs like Google says,

It’s a high bar, there’s no question about it. But I don’t feel competitive against that. I mean I think that the goal for me is to help create great talent in great companies, and what I’m hoping that in the process, they create wealth and opportunities for others. That being said, trying to measure up against something like Google as an investment return, that would just make you anxious. I don’t feel very competitive with that. I just hope that I continue to do good work and contribute.

I think that’s great advice. It’s so easy to fall into the trap of benchmarking yourself against a rare one time astronomical success. It only makes you more anxious and cloud your judgement in decision making, spinning you into an uncontrolled perpetual fall downwards. The negative energy just feeds back into the system and snowballs.

I think I have fell into that trap of focusing on the wrong thing. I think the reason why I fell for that is because I am very competitive. It’s only natural that when I see someone doing better than me, that I only want to do even better–to win. I’m not a life-is-a-zero-sum game guy, but I am competitive.

I think the other reason is because sometimes I care too much about what other people think of me. And it is so easy for external parties to view you from the outside and say, “Why can’t he accomplish this feat? Someone else has already done it, and therefore it’s possible. If he can’t do it, then he must be a loser”. It’s easy to benchmark others against the best. Not so funny when others benchmark you the same way.

That’s exactly what happened in that interview. The interviewer asked Randy a question that same line of external judgement: “how do you think you are going to beat the record?” In my opinion, Randy’s answer was perfect, “Look, I know it’s difficult, but I don’t ask myself that every time I go to work, or in every investment decision I mae. I focus on what’s important really here: contributing, creating wealth and opportunities to the best I can” I think I would have bombed that test. I would have said something that displays my naivete like, “oh, that’s nothing–I’ll beat it.” Sounds Dilbert-ish.

Towards the end of the interview, Randy was asked what his recommendation was for people who starting out and looking for a profession. The interviewer asked if he would recommend his own career trajectory he took, for instance. Randy says,

You should question authority, question convention, question other people’s expectations. We live in a day and time when all things are possible for people who have the raw intelligence, energy, and dedication to reinvent things. And that includes reinventing themselves. The shame of it is when smart people conform to conventional expectations and miss out on the opportunities to live a creative life. Within that confine, almost anything can be a great profession and can be a good and purposeful life’s work. But first and foremost, it’s gotta be important to you.

Randy Komisar one of the mentors at the Stanford Technology Ventures Program.

Interesting thing I read today: Much like how a sculptor’s work is the result of what is taken away, self-control can also be described in the same manner.

Self-control manifests largely in the absence of more obvious emotional fireworks. Signs include being unfazed under stress or handling a hostile person without lashing out in return. Another mundane example is time management: Keeping ourselves on a daily schedule demands self-control, if only to resist seemingly urgent but actually trivial demands, or the lure of time-wasting pleasures or distractions.

From the book, Emotional Intelligence: Why It Can Matter More Than IQ

That sounds to me like people who constantly repeat self-destructive (but addictive) behavior, such as gambling, drinking, .. <insert vice here>. Although it doesn’t even need to be that severe. These days, addiction to TV and mindlessly surfing the wonderful internet aimlessly, squandering precious time is also an indicator of lack of self-control.

It was a painful decision at that time, but I did give up TV. I haven’t replaced the remote’s battery and have been TV-free for more than half a year now. Do I miss it? Only if I start again I will. Have I missed out on the world? Not at all. I’ve also come to accept *not* completely finish reading all my RSS feeds. Even with my carefully culled list of RSS feeds, there’s just way too much information out there, more than I can consume, more than I have the time to separate wheat from chaff. Surfing the web for the pleasure of surfing, I have kept to a bare minimal.

The demon I am fighting today is waking up early. I’m more of a night owl, not really a morning person. But I have taken measures, including external accountability (with friendly bets with friends on how early I will wake up the next day, which if I fail to do, I buy them lunch). Sleep is a waste of time, I am trying to keep that to a minimum. I hate myself for indulging in it.
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The secret to success boils down to three simple words: Dream. Plan. Execute. It’s in committing to that last part–executing–where people often fall short. You could spend hours and hours envisioning a glorious life for yourself. You could outline on paper every single step you need to get there and every person who can help. But if you can’t commit to working the plan, regardless of how long it takes, you may as well take that piece of paper, crumple it up, and throw it in the recycle-bin.
– Nicholas Aretakis, author of No More Ramen

Love that quote. This resonates with me. Reminds me of Guy Kawasaki’s term for this: people suffering from “excusitis”. Don’t you just love people who talk and talk but *never* frigging deliver (but continue to paint their bold and supposedly forward thinking vision)?

I know I suffer from mild excusitis sometimes–so I’m putting this out here for everyone to see. You can call me out on this if you see me talking but not delivering (tell me to STFU). I’m doing this because I never want to be like that.

Retired Stanford business professor James G. March asserts that “short-term reality is an insult to the vision. You have to be self-delusional to create change - it’s a useful craziness guided and founded on your clear identity and knowing what you must do.” What lessons in leadership can be learned from Don Quixote? According to March, “We live in a world that emphasizes realistic expectations and clear successes. Quixote had neither. But through failure after failure, he persists in his vision and his commitment. He persists because he knows who he is.” Builders are not only willing but indeed determined to put up with the grief that results from pursuing their dreams.

The above was from a book review on Amazon. Some powerful stuff. I had to take a few moments after reading that just to fully absorb it.

Today, I watched the 2007 keynote from TechCrunch40 where Mike Moritz interviewed tech heavyweights Marc Andreessen (of Netscape, Ning, Opsware fame), Chad Hurley (of Youtube fame), and David Filo (of Yahoo! fame).

Marc Andreesen has a point on being CEO, that it’s not a job cut out for everyone.

CEO job is an unrelenting stream of bad news. If it’s a international big company, then you get bad news from all over the world. The key is to be able to listen to and absorb all that news, then filter and act on it; not letting it get to you emotionally.

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Speaking of self-awareness, I had just recently sent out an email survey to some close ones to ask for good and bad feedback on myself. I recently stumbled upon this test from Penelope Trunk’s post and decided to give it a shot. I don’t exactly fancy tedious lengthy questionnaires, and this one was only 20 questions, Penelope recommended it, so I figured I’d give it a shot. Pretty insightful, I recommend it; it tells you how you interact with other personality types. Here is the link to J.T. O’Donnell’s Interaction Style Assessment Test.

Now on some of the questions, they were basically polarized yes/no types, with no in-between answers like “sometimes” or “depends”. That was tough, so just shoot from the hip and go with your gut. First thing that comes to mind is probably right, so don’t think too hard on these questions.

Below is my report card. This is just for my personal reference to remind myself. Take your own test here:

Based on the results of the ISAT, you are an….ENERGIZER!

Full of persuasive energy, ENERGIZERS are natural people-persons. You know how to strike up a conversation and keep it going. Take a look at the following grid to learn more about your professional strengths as they compare to the other three Interaction Styles:

Interaction-Style-Chart

Every Interaction Style is valuable in the workplace. However, the key to being successful on-the-job and as part of a work team is to understand your Interaction Style so that you can A) choose a role on the team that leverages your style’s strengths, and B) understand the other styles on your team so you can communicate with them effectively.
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As I was taking a break from studying at a coffee shop today, I was *productively* wasting time by burning through the pile of magazines that I subscribed to when I found this gem from Entrepreneur magazine written by Romanus Wolter. He listed 4 points that hit me hard on all four counts.

1. Establish an affirmative mind-set by giving yourself a reason to become more disciplined. Just as everyone has different muscular strength, we all possess different levels of self-discipline. State three positive outcomes associated with becoming more disciplined, and give your subconscious direction by integrating your business goals into your daily routine. Having an overall view of your objectives and progress keeps you motivated to take action even when there are distractions.

I fight distractions a lot, and self-discipline is a challenge as well. This past week I did pretty well, digging myself out of bed early to go jog (to get blood pumping into my brain) and then going to work early to get a head start. I recently asked for feedback on myself from a certain few people and one of the criticisms I got was that I was too “corporate”. I think Romanus brought up a good point here; that integrating some business goals into your daily routine helps keep you more focused on your personal end goal. If the end goal is something large, this will obviously require some effort and consist of more than just a few steps. Some “corporate” grown-up-ness helps in reminding me of what I am working towards and not losing sight of my goal even if it’s distant.

In fact, just this past week I tried something new that worked well. I called a good friend Monday night, told him my entire to-do list (my desired objectives that I wanted to hit) for the next day, and told him that if I fail to achieve even one, I would buy him lunch. The list ranged from “not pressing the snooze button at 6 am more than once” (first thing when I wake up) to “studying for my test” (last thing before I go to bed). And I hit it all! Had it not been for this, I think I would have hit the snooze button more than once.
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I read this comment below today by Pistolette and have many times thought of the same thing. To digress, the blog post where I read this comment is a great one — I’ll write up on that in a separate post.

It’s been two years since Hurricane Katrina desrtoyed the homes of my entire family, but now we are more successful financially, mentally, and career-wise than we were before. I suppose its like the saying goes “it’s only when you lose everything that you’re free to do anything.” After a few days of moping around we quickly regrouped and simply felt happy to be alive. Every day since then I have lived strongly in the present, and have an awareness of things around me that I did not have before. We lost most of our fears, and learned to enjoy life through experiences rather than material things. Perhaps a record-breaking hurricane seems like an extreme case of happenstance, but I think it still qualifies. I see many people around me trying to endure life here (in New Orleans) with the same old attitudes and they are suffering so much. I choose to see the positive things the storm brought here, and as a result I am “lucky”.

Don’t you sometimes get tired of defending all that you have accumulated in life? Ironically, sometimes it’s the things that you have amassed that now holds you back from otherwise going in a much different direction than you would like to; effectively becoming “baggage”.

Recently when I was backpacking Europe alone, I met this shopkeeper lady in the beautiful city of Nürnberg, Germany. She used to be a school teacher, she was old(er), but very upbeat, positive, and energetic. We had more than a superficial “tourist to shopkeeper-that-sells-to-tourists” talk. Turns out, I found out that she had recently been through some difficult times and as a result lost almost everything, including her house and her significant other.

She smiled as she said to me enthusiastically, “I have lost everything, and now I can only WIN!” (now imagine that, in a thick German accent)

We bonded with a short conversation about life in general, after just 5 minutes. I guess we hit it off really quick. Her name is Christina, and I’ll never forget her (I hope I don’t). She was shy in front of the camera but I insisted that I wouldn’t leave without a picture. So here it is, and I’m showing it although I look like an idiot (my eyes are closed)

Picture 023

To go off slightly on a tangent, Christina’s store is one of those makeshift ones. It was among a few others set up on a broad pedestrian-only bridge. Here’s a scene from the bridge, across from her little store. Pretty, huh?

Picture 107

Some of you have the intellectual capacity to cut through complexity but are indecisive or afraid of being wrong. Can you wait until all the facts are in and the picture is clearer? Here’s the rub: You make a bet even when you don’t make a bet! That is, by not choosing to do anything different, you are choosing the status quo.
– Ram Charan

I’ve written much on this blog about change, about learning to be comfortable being uncomfortable, about not fearing fear, about not fearing failure, and about not settling for mediocrity and not defending the status quo. That quote above pretty much nailed all of the things I’ve written about, the qualities I strive for (or against) — but heavens forbid I become but do not see (so for the people who do know me, please do tell me when I am blindsided).

I am reminded of a blog post I just recently read about an interview with Sallie Krawcheck, CEO of Citigroup’s global wealth management. She talks about how a CEO often at times must make decision with imperfect information. At first, that may not sound like the right thing to do. Shouldn’t one wait until one has all the information?

Now that I think about it, if everyone had perfect information — then the best choice would probably be so obvious, and everyone would place their bet on the obvious best choice. Hence, making the best choice _would_ by definition, be the choice of the status quo. Status quo to me is pretty much mediocrity.

If you’re like everyone else, then you’re just an average person, the mediocre. So how do you break out of the pack and stand out? By beating the status quo. And to obtain results better than the average everybody else, it makes sense that one has to risk some uncertainty, for example, by making decisions with imperfect information. The adage, no pain no gain is true. Risk is proportional to reward. You risk nothing, you get nothing.

The quote above struck a chord inside of me, because after reading it, I start to realize that I have been just that person Ram Charan spoke of. I delay on taking an action for want of a more complete picture — and I implicitly without realizing it made the decision of NOT taking an action. Not actively taking an action is the easy way out for lazy cop-outs, and because inaction requires NO effort, it is usually the preferred choice of the status quo.

For my absolute hate of taking the mediocre path — I will now remind myself to the best of my ability, to be more proactive in making decisions, avoiding inaction, in spite of imperfect information. I’m not talking about taking blind chances of course, I need to practice more in making educated guesses, weighing risk vs. reward, including the cost of inaction. I will not always win, but the more I practice making decisions with imperfect information, I’ll be able to draw from a repertoire of previous choice, and gradually improve my batting average.

If I don’t start making decisions when faced with imperfect information, then I would have implicitly doomed myself to mediocrity. This is a wake up call for me. I need to rack up some failures while I’m still young — it’s something best taken cared of early in life so that you can move on.

I just discovered this thing called Roadtrip Nation today, and it’s actually pretty cool — a bunch of kids going around the country interviewing successful people and learning from them.

Key takeaways from just these four video clips,

  • You have to be prepared to die trying (as 50 cent would say, “get rich or die trying”)
  • You have to be OK with failing
  • Be true to yourself, find your passion. You may not see the immediate impact, so it’s a matter of staying focused, searching inside of yourself, and believing in yourself that you can do it
  • Leaps of faith and terrifying, but you have got to leap
  • Ask yourself what is the worse that could happen — more often than not your world will not come to an end like you thought it would
  • Worrying about the future won’t help. Find your calling, and just do it. Don’t overanalyze.
  • Use your time to make mistakes while you are young, the world is your oyster. The key is to learn from your previous successes and mistakes, and taking those experiences to your next challenge
  • Make the most with what you have, you are ultimately accountable for your own success

Plenty of good ol’ advice from all these video clips. Unfortunately I don’t have the luxury to watch them all at the moment, I got a tonne of stuff to wrap up before my upcoming backpacking trip to Europe

I was reading an article published by MarcumSmith and in it, I learned a word that I have not previously known about but whose meaning I am familiar with.

Veracity is the English word for the Latin term veritas, which means truth. But why not just say the word truth if that’s what they meant by choosing it to describe what they found? Truth essentially refers to facts or reality; it implies accuracy and honesty. Veracity, however, differs slightly; veracity is the habitual pursuit of, and adherence to, truth.

Veracity differs from truth in action, not in value. So why is veracity so important—who doesn’t want the truth? It’s not that people don’t want the truth, but what portion we want is occasionally a different story. What part wouldn’t we want? The part that’s hard to hear. What fraction of the truth wouldn’t we want to address? The portion that’s hard to say.

There is a point and time in almost every important business discussion where we might be curiously exploring or intensely debating, and stumble upon brutal facts. If openness and progress are the outcome of humility, and innovation is the aim of curiosity, then veracity is the light that exposes the truth hidden in the shadows of habits and comfort zones.

Admitting your own failures and shortcomings are difficult sometimes. Veracity means to be honest with yourself, acknowledging weakness so that you can move on to address them. I _do_ want people to tell me the part they think would be hard to me to hear. I _do_ want to know the truth that is hard for me to swallow. Why? Because I believe in The Stockdale Paradox, as written by Jim Collins:

Retain faith that you will prevail in the end, regardless of the difficulties; and at the same time confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.

Enough said. Sweeping the dirt under the rug doesn’t mean that the dirt is gone.

The world can shape you if you let it. To have a sense of yourself as you live, you must make conscious choices. Sometimes the choices are really hard, and you make a lot of mistakes.
John Donahoe, President of eBay Marketplaces

The world can shape you if you let it. To have a sense of yourself as you live, you must make conscious choices. Sometimes the choices are really hard, and you make a lot of mistakes.
– John Donahoe, President of eBay Marketplaces

A samurai who does not polish his sword every day will find that when most he needs it, the sword has grown rusty.

Everyone has a skill that they are good at, a skill others would describe as a natural talent to this person. This quote reminds me that no matter how skillful you are, if you don’t practice, you will lose it. Another great reminder of why you shouldn’t take anything you consider your talent, for granted — but instead, practice and invest to get better at it. With true passion, you may one day become the best in the world at it.

It is important to remember that the brain holds the key to everything we will ever accomplish.
– Richard Restak, M.D. Neurology and Neuropsychology

This quote reminded me of an NY Times article about big company CEO’s and their private libraries. I too, would want a private library like this:

Picture (and bandwidth) property of NY Times

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