Archive for the ‘technology’ Category

iPhone Tech Talk – Los Angeles

Monday, November 10th, 2008

(I’ve been rather caught up lately, and this is a slightly late post!)

Update 11/11/08: Correction, when I wrote below that a certain Apple product did not have a camera, I was referring to the iPod Touch, not the iPhone 2G! Tks CaArRrRny.

About 2.5 weeks ago, I took a day off from work and drove 2 hours up to LA to attend a mini iPhone developer conference. It was a free event, but seating was limited and reservation was a must. I was lucky to get a spot, a few of my developer buddies from the San Diego area were not able to secure one (the event “sold out” almost immediately!)

photo.jpg
 

Apple also announced that they have just launched a developer forum site just the night before. This forum is late in the game, also because it was only recently that Apple decided to lift the developer-community-killing NON DISCLOSURE (duh) agreement.

I got to meet some interesting dev guys, and learned a bit more about this new mobile platform (below are some pictures). Some of my thoughts:

The iPhone App Store really does provide value

As much as some folks criticise this “centralized” distribution method, it provides value like Digg.com, Reddit.com, and Slashdot.org does – in discovery. Does Digg create its own content? No. Digg’s largest value prop: The most interesting news at that point in time on the ‘net, when you visit the site (great for ADD news addicts). It’s a great discovery service. So if you’re an iPhone app developer, the App Store is a great way for people to discover your app. You are exposed to an audience world-wide. Or at least, the 50-60 some countries that iPhone is officially distributed in.

To contrast, in absence of the App Store, you can distribute your app on your own personal web site. Uhh, and how are you going to get discovered? Are you going to spend $ on a marketing SEO force? Look at Windows Mobile and Symbian. If you developed an app on these said platforms, you are free to give/sell it exclusively from on your own web site. There’s not an equivalent “App Store” for Windows Mobile and Symbian OS. (And how are apps doing on those platform again? Right..)

Apple’s seemingly arbitrary process of approving apps sucks

Yeah it sucks. Apple provided lunch at the Grand Wilshire hotel, so we didn’t have to go out and spend money. Nice move, because developers can discuss and get to know each other over a meal (aligned with AAPL’s motive of cultivating a developer community – and oh, I like free food too). One thing that appears to be the consensus is Apple’s no-guidance on what apps they will approve or not approve to be on the App Store.

For an app developer, after you have done building your app, you then have to wait for Apple’s final thumbs up/down on whether your app will be accepted for distribution. While some checks and balances are necessary for various reasons (quality assurance, no malware apps, etc.) – this current process is one big black box and the trouble is that if you were a real corporation who had to justify engineering resources to allocate, complete with revenue projection plans, you have this one step where it looks like it’s a dealbreaker: the review process.

The trouble is, you don’t know before hand if Apple would say “hell no” to distributing your app after you have already spent the time/money/effort toiling away learning the platform, and then painstakingly building an app. Your resources spent would be effectively be written off as a sunk lost, if they just rejected the app. This is arbitrary outcome is hard to accept, if you’re the I-allocate-my-engineering-resources-wisely-with-planning kind. If you’re a {one, two, three}-man “side project” startup guy app developer, then whatever .. because you’ll just likely chalk it up to fun. But if you’re doing this solely to put food on the table, this process sucks.

One developer over lunch mentioned how his app was submitted, and Apple did not deliver a decision within the time they said they would (IIRC, 90 days), and told him to resubmit (essentially beginning the whole submission process from beginning again). He did call once in a while to check the status, and he said the operator’s sole job was to basically just remind callers that the 90 days have not been reached, and they should just wait by the mailbox for an answer.

Fragmentation is veeeery minimal in the iPhone

Minimal, yes, not zero. Why? Because the older iPhone iPod Touch does not have a camera. So if you’re developing an app using a camera, you had to include in your code an “if no camera, do this, else do that” statement. Think about the Android. It’s made to run on a bazillion type of different hardware from different manufacturers. If you were developing an app using the a camera, you have to do a “if no camera, break, if else, camera supports X resolution, do this, else if, camera has this special feature, do this, else … ” nesting an unnecessarily long if/else conditional (or a conditional equivalent type check).

The art of symbiotic co-creation

Back “in the day”, one has to negotiate with carriers and stuff (no one man dev shop is going to do that) – clearly the barrier-to-entry has been lowered significantly for mobile app developers. Also, Apple takes care of billing, local taxation stuff (recall that the iPhone is distributed globally in 50-60 some countries), and the hosting of your app. I think the 30% cut is reasonable, as they are creating real value for mobile developers.

It’s really nice how Apple has removed a lot of friction in developing a mobile app. The success of the iPhone hinges just as much on the app developers as do the success of the mobile developers, on the success of the iPhone. The more attractive applications exist out there, the more that would drive iPhone sales globally, further strengthening the buyer-seller network-effect (like eBay, they are un-toppable at this point). As an app developer, you’d want to develop for the platform with the widest audience possible.

Anyone can engineer an app for any niche they choose, so even obscure verticals may have their needs met. Apple knows there’s no way it can possibly meet *everyones* app tastes, so it’s smart to just farm out that piece to the free capitalistic market.

On the flip side, not providing an open market for developers would mean not being able to feasibly meet a certain need by a certain category of consumers (some will be left out, by definition!), and those folks would be ripe for poaching by iPhone-competitors. Thus, AAPL is really covering themselves from a potential attack from the low-end of the market there (which if were to occur, would force Apple to keep moving higher in the market – classic b-school case study stuff). This reminds me of an article on innovation by McKinsey Quarterly that I had just previous blogged about (good read about innovation, do check it out. Warning: soul-sucking registration required).

In all, this was a nice event to get to know other iPhone devs around the Socal area (one guy actually flew in from Phoenix!). I learned a lot of best practices type stuff, e.g. excessive and unnecessary polling of the GPS quickly drains the battery life, and most apps don’t need that kind of geo-location precision (so don’t be a hog!)

Hooking up an iPhone to a Macbook for real-time live debugging:

photo.jpg
 

Real-time performance benchmark stats:

photo.jpg
 

Hey, does that spell an “A” for .. Aquaduct?

photo.jpg
 

Oracle’s 20% price hike (rock) + Slumping economy (hard place) = where do you go?

Wednesday, August 27th, 2008

A snip from an interview with Red Hat’s new chief exec:

Q: What’s your biggest surprise since starting at Red Hat?

A: I think I finally get the joke. I was a senior exec and, like every other senior exec, I had a huge IT budget. Mine was as large as Red Hat’s revenues last year. You sit there and say: “Why are my IT costs going up, but I’m getting less and less functionality?”

Every IT professional says the same thing: “My lights-on costs are going up. But — wait a minute — I bought a laptop, and it cost me half as much as it did three years ago, and my costs are going up?” I get the joke now.

If you look at the S&P 500, seven of the top 20 companies are tech and, other than Google, they’re not high-growth. But they’re just printing money because switching costs are so high. There’s this incredible amount of residual goodwill to Red Hat because we’re seen as an alternative to that. Oracle announced a 20-something percent price increase just as the economy starts heading south. How can you do that unless you’re pretty sure nobody can switch? High switching costs led to infrastructure cost creep. Once you get hooked, you can’t get off.

I chuckled as I read this. The switching cost problem sounds like the case between AT&T and Bell Atlantic in the 1980′s, which I coincidentally just recently blogged about recently.

Those who cannot remember the past, are condemned to repeat it.
— George Santayana, in his book The Life of Reason.

I think the comment about Oracle’s 20+% price increase is certainly good news for on-demand SaaS/cloud computing players – to disrupt the market. As companies start tightening their belts, the pay-per-drink model would inevitably look a lot more enticing.

Even when placed between a rock and a hard place (between the US economic slump and technology behemoths’ Oracle-style price increases), the numbers show that companies still can’t afford to cut back on technology spending. Technology is a business competitive advantage.

According to research firm Gartner, “It can be hard for a business to stay ahead if its technology is falling behind. That is one reason that despite an uncertain economy, worldwide information technology spending is on track to reach $3.4 trillion in 2008 — an 8 percent increase over 2007.”

PC sales (especially laptops) are surprisingly stronger than expected, according to S&P’s Equity Research. “The latest evidence came from the Aug. 19 earnings report from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), which said unit shipments of PCs rose 20% from a year ago”

The bottom line is that businesses can’t afford to be without technology. And with such pricing pressures, online business apps are just much easier on the wallet. $50 per user/year for Google Apps, or $350 user/year MS Office.

Granted, Enterprise Web 2.0 still has a long way to go to fill the shoes of traditional on-premise apps, but I am confident that more innovation will come (I certainly plan on being a part of that innovation!), and SaaS/cloud computing/Enterprise Web 2.0′s benefits will be too good to ignore – and eventually, its benefits would exceed those from the traditional legacy on-premise apps.

From CNNMoney/Fortune: Merrill Lynch estimates that online business applications will grow to a $95 billion market within five years. The market for online office software is “wide open,” said Guy Creese, an IT analyst with the Burton Group.

“My lights-on costs are going up. But — wait a minute — I bought a laptop, and it cost me half as much as it did three years ago, and my costs are going up?”

Yeah. It doesn’t make sense.

Reaggregating SaaS/PaaS results for a competitive advantage

Monday, August 11th, 2008

In a previous post, I discussed how cloud computing and the Grameenphone microfinance endeavor fit into a McKinsey article about the benefits of unbundling production from distribution. This weekend I decided to revisit the article again just to see if I would see anything differently this time around.

The world is indeed getting flatter. The article’s section on “Tapping into a world of talent” talks about how technology today fosters interactive online collaboration which in turn enables companies to outsource increasingly specialized aspects of their work and still maintain organizational coherence.

[...] technology permits them to decentralize innovation through networks or customers, it also allows them to parcel out more work to specialists, free agents, and talent networks.

Top talent for a range of activities-from finance to marketing and IT to operations-can be found anywhere. The best person for a task may be a free agent in India or an employee of a small company in Italy rather than someone who works for a global business service provider. Software and Internet technologies are making it easier and less costly for companies to integrate and manage the work of an expanding number of outsiders [...]

This trend should gather steam in sectors such as software, health care delivery, professional services, and real estate, where companies can easily segment work into discrete tasks for independent contractors and then reaggregate it. [...] Competitive advantage will shift to companies that can master the art of breaking down and recomposing tasks.

Globalization is inevitable, and increased competition means keeping businesses on their toes, which in turn translates to increased benefits to the consumer. In short, it’s healthy for both consumers and producers (unless you’re just lazy).

In a way, this also parallels SaaS/PaaS. Look at the SaaSCon sponsors list for a glimpse of some of players out there. There’s no shortage of on-demand providers filling gaps in the cloud-computing/SaaS value chain and gaps left open for disruption by on-premise incumbents.

Each cloud computing/SaaS vendor mostly specialize in one verticle and strive to dominate that niche-delivering a continuous stream of value (innovate or die) for less (save customers money or be undercut by your competitor). Jeff Bezos has explicitly said it before that with Amazon AWS, he wants to innovate there by reducing operating expenses, increasing efficiencies infrastructure through economies of scale, so that (here’s the important part) “.. the cost savings can be then in turn be returned to the consumer.” Ok, so I paraphrased, but he said it in a video clip somewhere online and I can’t seem to find it right now.

The point here is that he’s trying to save the consumer money (and that’s a great brand promise!) The jury is still out on that one, given that AWS is still relatively young, but if anything else – it’s a makes a good sell (who doesn’t like to hear that their vendor is actively trying to save them more money?), but ok .. I’ve digressed too much on Bezos. I just can’t help liking people (and companies) who genuinely want to help others (the customers) be successful, so that they themselves can be successful too. Pay-for-performance? Pay-per-drink? Cloud computing? ;)

Just to name a few vendors:

  • Google Docs -> on-demand “MS Office”
  • Amazon AWS -> on-demand computing power, storage.
  • Salesforce -> on-demand CRM
  • CODA -> on-demand finance application (built on Force.com!)
  • NetSuite -> on-demand ERP
  • WorkDay -> on-demand HR, payroll, procurement, business intel, ERP

Odds are that your company is already using some kind of on-demand solution for one of its functions, even if you do not realize it.

The way I see it, if you think of each of these functions as discrete tasks with each farmed out to a particular SaaS vendor, then the need for the reaggregation for each of the function’s results is obvious. I agree with the article that companies that succeed in recomposing these tasks would hold a competitive advantage.

It would allow executives to conduct business at the speed of thought (asking questions like “how can I reduce operating expenses here today, can I realistically turn the ship around fast enough in anticipation of this tectonic shift/change in competitive landscape”) – as opposed to the speed of “how fast can I line up all the columns in this Excel spreadsheet from that tabular data in the PDF spreadsheet and .. hmm, it would be really nice if I could overlay on this the results from some SQL queries.. oh wait I have to get those from John in IT first ..”

The $200-300Bil business solutions market is open for disruption by Platform-as-a-Service.

Web 2.0 – all grown up and ready to change the way we do business.

Not withholding innovation by decoupling from low(er)-level constraints

Tuesday, August 5th, 2008

Marc Benioff, chairman and CEO of Salesforce kicked off this month in cloud computing and SaaS news with a guest post on TechCrunch.

Some key highlights:

Web 1.0 was about the emergence of the “killer app” from companies like eBay, Amazon.com, and Google. Although we thought of them as Web sites at the time, they were really amazing applications with a level of functionality, ease of use, and scale that had rarely been seen before by the average consumer. Transactions, not just of goods but of knowledge, became ubiquitous and instant. The efficiency and transparency that was once the domain of global financial markets was now at the command of individual consumers and businesses.

It’s about empowering the everyday worker (especially the small business guys) with powerful tools previously only available to mega-corps with deep pockets. Web 2.0, cloud computing, SaaS leaves a taste of benevolence on my tongue, and I like it.

That’s “benevolence”, the way Paul Graham says it:

Surely Microsoft isn’t benevolent? But when I think back to the beginning, they were. Compared to IBM they were like Robin Hood. When IBM introduced the PC, they thought they were going to make money selling hardware at high prices. But by gaining control of the PC standard, Microsoft opened up the market to any manufacturer. Hardware prices plummeted, and lots of people got to have computers who couldn’t otherwise have afforded them. [...] Microsoft isn’t so benevolent now.

I guess I like rooting for the underdog and taking on the incumbents ;) Any big problem is a big opportunity, right?

More from Marc’s post:

Web 3.0 changes all of this by completely disrupting the technology and economics of the traditional software industry. The new rallying cry of Web 3.0 is that anyone can innovate, anywhere. Code is written, collaborated on, debugged, tested, deployed, and run in the cloud. When innovation is untethered from the time and capital constraints of infrastructure, it can truly flourish.

Emphasis is mine on that last sentence, since I think it’s worth noting. It’s why I absolutely <3 SaaS/cloud computing and believe in it. Too many times, as a software engineer .. you cut back on truly innovative ideas because of the voice of fear that speaks softly to you from the back of your mind, “but dude, you’re opening a can of worms; you need to do this, that, and it’s mostly all prickly infrastructure stuff that you’re not an expert in and would take you days/weeks/months to get up to speed! gahh .. can’t we find another less innovative solution that is easier to implement?”

And sad to say, most would take the easy way out — innovate lesser, in smaller incremental chunks (to keep the pain points low). And that’s infrastructure holding back otherwise creative problem solving.

According to Daryl Plummer, managing VP of Gartner (IT), about $8 of every $10 spent on technology in corporations is for maintaining systems, as opposed to innovating. Talk about a serious baggage.
“It’s hard to turn a big ship very quickly [...] You have technologies that are like cement in these businesses—they’re hard to change and get rid of.”

I believe that with cloud computing and SaaS, we’ll see more bottom-up (of the org chart) punching of holes in the “corporate policy” firewall, because business units needs stuff done, and IT departments can’t keep up. This is especially true in huge bureaucratic companies.
(more…)

Mobile data adoption on the rise

Saturday, July 26th, 2008

Some mobile data trends (numbers + commentary):

  • Total mobile data revenues for 2007: US$157 Bil
  • Total mobile data revenues for Q1 2008: >US$49 Bil, 42.7% y-o-y increase. Of this, non-SMS data made up approx US$17.46 Bil (35.6% of total data revenues)
  • Mobile data revenues is now almost 20% of mobile operator total revenues
  • 40% of world’s data revenues come from APAC (>US$20 Bil in Q1 2008)
  • Fastest growing is EMEA, which despite only representing 2% of world’s data revenues, is growing at 91.7% y-o-y to US$927 Mil. This acceleration is aided by the 321% y-o-y increase of HSPA subscribers
  • Operator that generated highest non-voice revenues this quarter is Japan’s NTT DoCoMo (US$3.6 Bil), overtaking China Mobile (US$3.5 Bil)
  • As a % of overall revenue, Filipino mobile operator Smart Communication is the world’s market leader, and the only carrier to depend on non-voice revenues for > 50% of its income *I wonder how much of this is attributed to microfinance and mobile payments i n that region, hmm ..

And as always, I’d like to extrapolate some meaning from raw numbers, so let’s go.

Obviously, the trend clearly indicates that your cell phone is becoming more of a general purpose computing device (like your desktop PC, as opposed to a single-purpose device that makes phone calls only), with more rich features that PCs don’t have (e.g. GPS and accelerometer), and it’s all hooked up to the wonderful internet.

Action items: First, we have to get out of the habit of thinking of cell phones as desktops, because the use-cases are completely different; treating them as such is the clearest way to die. Second, with mobile devices becoming more powerful (computationally, Moore’s law), having more storage (cost of storage trending down, Moore’s law), internet connectivity improving (coverage, speed, cost, again, Moore’s law), and throw on top of that added new hardware features (GPS, accelerometer, etc) .. this sounds to me like having richer and more powerful tools in a technologist’s problem solving warchest — so bring on the problems, bring on the opportunity.

I chuckle as I write this because this reminds me of what Stanford University’s president John Hennessy once mentioned in an interview, about his prediction of what would happen in mobile technology down the road:

  1. Information at any where, at any time, on any device
  2. A user experience that works well, independent of what that information is: Be it a Google map, stock listing, web site, email, etc. Making that convenient and natural, and seamless
  3. Imagine walking in a brick and mortar store and wanting to buy a product. I want to look up my phone and do a price comparison on the product and know what people are saying about it. I want to do that in 5 seconds. Today, I have to open a browser, visit a review site, search, etc. (too much work)

The iPhone is clearly one of the pioneers in making that happen, especially with the iPhone app store. I have previously commented on why I think the iPhone app store is very much Apple’s competitive advantage, and as much as I root for Google’s Android, it remains to be seen how the Android incarnations would address the iPhone platform threat.

With mobile carriers having trouble increasing revenues from voice, you betcha they are thinking of every single way to make money from mobile data. I have also previously written a rant about iPhone/AT&T’s data pricing strategy (there’s nothing wrong with the strategy per se, I’m just a price-sensitive geek at heart).

Now’s a good time to be a mobile app developer .. there’s money already being pledged for the BlackBerry platform (US$150 Mil) , Google Android platform (US$10 Mil), and the iPhone platform (US$100 Mil). I can see mobile carriers snapping up these mobile app startups to further bolster their mobile data revenues. Technology IPOs are almost non-existent today, much to a Silicon Valley VC’s annoyance, so exits via acquisition to a mobile operator would make sense for mobile app startups.

I’m passionate about innovation and problem solving with tech, and I can’t wait to see more new applications in mobile given these trends. The question I try to ask myself given these stats above are, “what else is possible today that wasn’t yesterday?” Think it about it.

If I were to wish for anything, I should not wish for wealth and power, but for the passionate sense of the potential, for the eye which, ever young and ardent, sees the possible. Pleasure disappoints, possibility never. And what wine is so sparkling, what so fragrant, what so intoxicating, as possibility!
–Søren Kierkegaard

To go off on a slight tangent, it’s interesting to note that a Filipino mobile operator is the world’s market leader in depending on non-voice revenues. I wonder how much mobile payments contribute to their revenue stream, and how much of that is related to microfinance. If anything, I think that could be a classic BoP example because it would illustrate another example to bust the myth that corporations cannot make a significant and sustainable profit in selling to the poor.

If I was all the other mobile carriers looking to make more $ from mobile data, I’d be watching this Filipino carrier, Smart Communications closely to glean some lessons.

Click here for the full story of the stats above from cellular-news, and regional breakdown of revenues.

And I’ll end this blog post with vivid taste of possibilities for mobile — a very cool Android project in the making called Enkin. Do check it out!