One of the reasons I really hesitated in getting the eyePhone is because among other things, I truly dreaded the 2-year mandatory contract. I hated the idea of guaranteeing someone a consistent revenue stream and possibly be locked-in to their demands should they raise their prices.

Case study: Bell Atlantic and AT&T vendor lock-in battle.

In the 80’s, Bell Atlantic spent $3 Bil on AT&T 5ESS switches for Bell’s telephone network. AT&T’s switches were much more superior to Northern Telecom and Siemens at that time.

However, Bell didn’t properly size the vendor lock-in.

The 5ESS switches ran an operating system proprietary to AT&T, so whenever Bell wanted upgrades or new features, it was pretty much at the mercy of AT&T’s pricing weather.

Case in point: Bell Atlantic wanted its systems the ability to identify toll-free “1-800″ calls. AT&T didn’t provide (of course they didn’t!) any documentation or API for Bell to develop this feature themselves, and quoted Bell $8 Mil for a software upgrade just to do that. Bell had no choice and bent over. Voice dialing? $10 Mil! (really)

This extortion was a fat consistent revenue stream for AT&T, and made up 30-40% of AT&T’s switch revenues. AT&T’s position was further solidified by using its proprietary OS to prevent others from developing compatible equipment that may cannibalize sales from AT&T’s product line.

Bell Atlantic could not just throw AT&T out because (1) the switches had a lifespan of over a decade (2) removing and installing was expensive (3) the used switches had low re-sale value, because nobody not already locked-in would want to be locked-in ;)

In other words, the switching costs were astronomous, and Bell was hurting real bad in the wallet. It sued AT&T in 1995 for monopoly.

Shifting gears. To draw a parallel, in many ways, traditional on-premise software vendors use such tactics to .. well, play their hand.

With SaaS, this problem goes away. The customer can switch vendors on a dime; without the safety net of a perpetual licensing scheme, vendors have to constantly prove themselves by continuously delivering innovation and value to their customers — or risk losing them to the competition.

A flat world combined with fierce competition to innovate can only mean more and better options to the consumer :)

Unlike traditional on-premise vendors, SaaS vendors can’t rely on their own product development “baggage” to milk a drying revenue stream.

If I had to pick the critical technology for the 20th century, .. I’d say it was the sitcom. Starting with the Second World War a whole series of things happened–rising GDP per capita, rising educational attainment, rising life expectancy and, critically, a rising number of people who were working five-day work weeks. For the first time, society forced onto an enormous number of its citizens the requirement to manage something they had never had to manage before–free time.

And what did we do with that free time? Well, mostly we spent it watching TV.

We did that for decades. We watched I Love Lucy. We watched Gilligan’s Island. We watch Malcolm in the Middle. We watch Desperate Housewives. Desperate Housewives essentially functioned as a kind of cognitive heat sink, dissipating thinking that might otherwise have built up and caused society to overheat.

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