Posts Tagged ‘iphone’

Morgan Stanley’s Mobile Internet Report Setup – pt. 1

Sunday, December 20th, 2009

The following screenshots are taken from a presentation deck of 92 slides. Some of the details are irrelevant to Web / mobile entrepreneurs & startups (e.g. carrier-side of things), and thus I save you the pain from having to read the whole thing. The Mobile Internet Report Setup is part 1 (of 3) of Morgan Stanley’s annual data dump covering the mobile + web industry.

(Click for larger image)

If you’re an entrepreneur in this space, now is the time to *not* fall asleep.

Morgan Stanley - Mobile Internet Report Setup 2009

Smartphone market share is growing globally.

Morgan Stanley - Mobile Internet Report Setup 2009

It’s the era of co-creation, nobody succeeds at it alone. A thriving 3rd-party application market place is key in a platform-play.

Morgan Stanley - Mobile Internet Report Setup 2009

Counterintuitively, Internet usage on smartphones does not grow linearly to shipments of handsets (it’s much greater).

Morgan Stanley - Mobile Internet Report Setup 2009

The Facebook + Apple combo = poster child for the future of mobile + web apps. Apple focuses on the handset superiority (hardware, app distribution), while Facebook focuses on the application software layer, user experience .. which in this case the mobile app strategically complements it’s core app (the actual Facebook desktop Web site). Facebook focuses on the viral network effects of its app, which itself is also a platform.

Morgan Stanley - Mobile Internet Report Setup 2009

Facebook’s Web platform is also thriving.

Morgan Stanley - Mobile Internet Report Setup 2009

Old news, but voice revenues are dropping and data is becoming more and more valuable for end users, and to carriers (to compensate for voice revenues).

Morgan Stanley - Mobile Internet Report Setup 2009

Smartphones do make a difference in enabling users to really consume the mobile Web and apps. Feature-phones just can’t handle it.

Morgan Stanley - Mobile Internet Report Setup 2009

Yet further proof that in this era, the democratized Internet will prevail. Iron-fisted dictatorships (*cough* Apple *cough*) will not win in the long run (my prediction anyways).

Morgan Stanley - Mobile Internet Report Setup 2009

The rest of the world (ROW)’s mobile market usually lag what we see in Japan by a few years. Japan’s social networking trends shows us that social networking apps are increasingly being accessed from mobile at the expense of desktop.

Morgan Stanley - Mobile Internet Report Setup 2009

8 years. ROW lags Japan by 8 years.

Morgan Stanley - Mobile Internet Report Setup 2009

Stay tuned for my summary of the other two slide decks .. those are some 600+ and 400+ slides long.

A Thriving App Economy Key To Telcos, Social Networks, and Handset Manufacturers Survival

Monday, June 8th, 2009
  • Amazon.com was started with the idea that they would make money by shipping physical products. Today’s Amazon makes money by building a market place where every link that take you to a product is in fact an ad (revenue share). They make more money, not by shipping goods, but by referring customers to other goods.
  • In 2008, 3 billions apps where downloaded on the Internet, most on social network and mobiles. That’s 40-50 million daily active users
  • Today < 5% are paid apps, but that's ok because numbers shows that paid apps are trending up
  • Average app price people pay for is the price of an iTunes song, $0.99 – $2.99. There may be a threshold where people won’t pay
  • Many people have call-waiting which cost them $3.99/month, but do they even use it once a month? But you don’t hesitate paying for it again because they want the convenience of having it. Users will pay for apps
  • An app economy is emerging, with lots of little companies. There probably won’t be a big winners, but if you look at the aggregate, this could be a 1 billion revenue stream opportunity, perhaps a $10 billion market cap business.
  • It’s opportunity is viable, real, out there, just won’t support a large company today. A real trend that will continue grow. As Facebook grows, as smartphone industry grows, there’s going to be a need for new revenue sources to support these companies & activities.
  • Telcos: as voice rates continues to drop for telcos, flat-rate data plans begin to fill in these revenue gaps
  • Facebooks of the world: ad won’t support the model, need app-based economy
  • Take off your US-centric lens. People in other countries may not have iPhones but they do consume a lot of data apps
  • AT&T’s of the world: walled-gardens are coming down, because they are seeing the revenue opportunity. They will build their own app stores and take their 30% margin on the apps
  • As iPhone prices come down, AAPL will not be able to make money from hardware, they will increasingly need to rely on revenue from apps

The above is Ram Shriram‘s technology trend prediction, from the 11th Annual Top Ten Tech Trends at the Churchill Club. I couldn’t find the transcripts from that 2-hour long debate, so yours truly had to hit the YouTube replay a few hundred times over to capture the above. Too good to not capture!

You can watch the entire thing here:

iPhone ring tones ‘r E-Z

Wednesday, March 11th, 2009

Wow I didn’t know this, but if you are an iPhone owner, making your own ring tones is really easy. I balk at ring tone prices for feature phones, which I think is a rip off and usually find ways to hack my own .. for the sake of bucking the system. Ok, are you ready for the instructions?

Step 1: If the audio piece you want as your ring tone is not already a file with an .m4r extension, (e.g. if you have an mp3), then use whatever free sound editor to clip the section you want and convert it into an .m4r file.

Step 2: Plug your iPhone to your computer, fire up iTunes, then drag ‘n drop the file onto iTunes.

Step 3: (that’s it, there isn’t anymore steps)

Now .. if it was this easy to make ring tones for all phones, mobile ring tones would probably ceast to be the #1 source of data revenue for mobile operators.

p.s. if you follow TED (which no cool person does not), you’ll be pleased to know that they have their classic intro music as a ring tone .. all ready to go for iPhones in an M4R file. Interview with the piece’s composer.

iPhone Tech Talk – Los Angeles

Monday, November 10th, 2008

(I’ve been rather caught up lately, and this is a slightly late post!)

Update 11/11/08: Correction, when I wrote below that a certain Apple product did not have a camera, I was referring to the iPod Touch, not the iPhone 2G! Tks CaArRrRny.

About 2.5 weeks ago, I took a day off from work and drove 2 hours up to LA to attend a mini iPhone developer conference. It was a free event, but seating was limited and reservation was a must. I was lucky to get a spot, a few of my developer buddies from the San Diego area were not able to secure one (the event “sold out” almost immediately!)

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Apple also announced that they have just launched a developer forum site just the night before. This forum is late in the game, also because it was only recently that Apple decided to lift the developer-community-killing NON DISCLOSURE (duh) agreement.

I got to meet some interesting dev guys, and learned a bit more about this new mobile platform (below are some pictures). Some of my thoughts:

The iPhone App Store really does provide value

As much as some folks criticise this “centralized” distribution method, it provides value like Digg.com, Reddit.com, and Slashdot.org does – in discovery. Does Digg create its own content? No. Digg’s largest value prop: The most interesting news at that point in time on the ‘net, when you visit the site (great for ADD news addicts). It’s a great discovery service. So if you’re an iPhone app developer, the App Store is a great way for people to discover your app. You are exposed to an audience world-wide. Or at least, the 50-60 some countries that iPhone is officially distributed in.

To contrast, in absence of the App Store, you can distribute your app on your own personal web site. Uhh, and how are you going to get discovered? Are you going to spend $ on a marketing SEO force? Look at Windows Mobile and Symbian. If you developed an app on these said platforms, you are free to give/sell it exclusively from on your own web site. There’s not an equivalent “App Store” for Windows Mobile and Symbian OS. (And how are apps doing on those platform again? Right..)

Apple’s seemingly arbitrary process of approving apps sucks

Yeah it sucks. Apple provided lunch at the Grand Wilshire hotel, so we didn’t have to go out and spend money. Nice move, because developers can discuss and get to know each other over a meal (aligned with AAPL’s motive of cultivating a developer community – and oh, I like free food too). One thing that appears to be the consensus is Apple’s no-guidance on what apps they will approve or not approve to be on the App Store.

For an app developer, after you have done building your app, you then have to wait for Apple’s final thumbs up/down on whether your app will be accepted for distribution. While some checks and balances are necessary for various reasons (quality assurance, no malware apps, etc.) – this current process is one big black box and the trouble is that if you were a real corporation who had to justify engineering resources to allocate, complete with revenue projection plans, you have this one step where it looks like it’s a dealbreaker: the review process.

The trouble is, you don’t know before hand if Apple would say “hell no” to distributing your app after you have already spent the time/money/effort toiling away learning the platform, and then painstakingly building an app. Your resources spent would be effectively be written off as a sunk lost, if they just rejected the app. This is arbitrary outcome is hard to accept, if you’re the I-allocate-my-engineering-resources-wisely-with-planning kind. If you’re a {one, two, three}-man “side project” startup guy app developer, then whatever .. because you’ll just likely chalk it up to fun. But if you’re doing this solely to put food on the table, this process sucks.

One developer over lunch mentioned how his app was submitted, and Apple did not deliver a decision within the time they said they would (IIRC, 90 days), and told him to resubmit (essentially beginning the whole submission process from beginning again). He did call once in a while to check the status, and he said the operator’s sole job was to basically just remind callers that the 90 days have not been reached, and they should just wait by the mailbox for an answer.

Fragmentation is veeeery minimal in the iPhone

Minimal, yes, not zero. Why? Because the older iPhone iPod Touch does not have a camera. So if you’re developing an app using a camera, you had to include in your code an “if no camera, do this, else do that” statement. Think about the Android. It’s made to run on a bazillion type of different hardware from different manufacturers. If you were developing an app using the a camera, you have to do a “if no camera, break, if else, camera supports X resolution, do this, else if, camera has this special feature, do this, else … ” nesting an unnecessarily long if/else conditional (or a conditional equivalent type check).

The art of symbiotic co-creation

Back “in the day”, one has to negotiate with carriers and stuff (no one man dev shop is going to do that) – clearly the barrier-to-entry has been lowered significantly for mobile app developers. Also, Apple takes care of billing, local taxation stuff (recall that the iPhone is distributed globally in 50-60 some countries), and the hosting of your app. I think the 30% cut is reasonable, as they are creating real value for mobile developers.

It’s really nice how Apple has removed a lot of friction in developing a mobile app. The success of the iPhone hinges just as much on the app developers as do the success of the mobile developers, on the success of the iPhone. The more attractive applications exist out there, the more that would drive iPhone sales globally, further strengthening the buyer-seller network-effect (like eBay, they are un-toppable at this point). As an app developer, you’d want to develop for the platform with the widest audience possible.

Anyone can engineer an app for any niche they choose, so even obscure verticals may have their needs met. Apple knows there’s no way it can possibly meet *everyones* app tastes, so it’s smart to just farm out that piece to the free capitalistic market.

On the flip side, not providing an open market for developers would mean not being able to feasibly meet a certain need by a certain category of consumers (some will be left out, by definition!), and those folks would be ripe for poaching by iPhone-competitors. Thus, AAPL is really covering themselves from a potential attack from the low-end of the market there (which if were to occur, would force Apple to keep moving higher in the market – classic b-school case study stuff). This reminds me of an article on innovation by McKinsey Quarterly that I had just previous blogged about (good read about innovation, do check it out. Warning: soul-sucking registration required).

In all, this was a nice event to get to know other iPhone devs around the Socal area (one guy actually flew in from Phoenix!). I learned a lot of best practices type stuff, e.g. excessive and unnecessary polling of the GPS quickly drains the battery life, and most apps don’t need that kind of geo-location precision (so don’t be a hog!)

Hooking up an iPhone to a Macbook for real-time live debugging:

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Real-time performance benchmark stats:

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Hey, does that spell an “A” for .. Aquaduct?

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Hello World Cocoa Touch, and …

Wednesday, October 1st, 2008

Hello World Mobile (and Apps)! Ready or not .. here I come :)

Hello Cocoa Touch and .. hello,

That’s a hello world on an iPhone simulator. The photo itself is taken on a, you guessed it – an iPhone ;)